This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

------------=_1564247068-118394-1184
Content-Type: text/plain

ACUS11 KWNS 271704
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271703
MIZ000-271900-

Mesoscale Discussion 1596
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1203 PM CDT Sat Jul 27 2019

Areas affected...Eastern upper Michigan and northern lower Michigan

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 271703Z - 271900Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Intensifying thunderstorms are possible across the region
through 3-4 PM EDT, with at least some risk for severe hail and
locally strong surface gusts.  It is not clear that a watch will be
needed, but trends will continue to be monitored.

DISCUSSION...Recent initiation of thunderstorm activity
south/southeast Traverse City may be in response to forcing for
ascent within an area of somewhat enhanced low-level warm advection.
However, boundary layer destabilization also appears well underway
across much of northern lower Michigan, where mid/upper 60s surface
dew points are contributing to mixed-layer CAPE in excess of 1000
J/kg, in the presence of fairly steep and steepening lower/mid
tropospheric lapse rates.  As the boundary layer destabilizes
further, there appears potential for further thunderstorm
intensification, in the presence of at least modestly sheared 30+ kt
westerly deep-layer ambient mean flow.  Shear may become marginally
sufficient to support supercell structure, and perhaps the evolution
of an increasingly organized convective system, with at least some
upscale growth possible as the mid-level trough axis overspreads the
region through 19-20Z.

Additionally, lift associated with converging lake breezes appears
to be providing support for sustained deepening convective
development across eastern portions of the upper peninsula of
Michigan.  Similar intensification and upscale convective growth
appears possible as activity spreads eastward across the remainder
of the peninsula during the next few hours.

..Kerr/Hart.. 07/27/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...APX...MQT...

LAT...LON   45318378 44978324 44308322 44198431 44228511 44418542
            44898509 45508464 45998494 46028593 46198578 46578477
            46408413 46078353 45908382 45928449 45318378



------------=_1564247068-118394-1184
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII"
Content-Disposition: inline
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
------------=_1564247068-118394-1184--

--- SBBSecho 3.07-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)