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ACUS02 KWNS 271655
SWODY2
SPC AC 271654

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1154 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2019

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF
WISCONSIN SOUTHWEST TO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY AREA...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong to severe storms could produce locally damaging wind
gusts across parts of the Upper Midwest Sunday afternoon and
evening.

...Synopsis...
Seasonally weak flow aloft is expected over the southern 2/3 of the
U.S. Monday, with low-amplitude ridging over the Desert Southwest,
and very weak troughing over the Southeast.

Farther north, a short-wave trough embedded in the mid-latitude
westerlies is forecast to shift across the north-central portion of
the country -- and will be associated with the main area of
convective interest for the Day 2 forecast.

At the surface, the primary feature of interest will be a weak low
-- associated with the aforementioned upper system -- moving into
the Upper Midwest, followed by a cold front which is progged to
shift southeastward across the north-central states in conjunction
with a stronger mid-level trough crossing the Canadian Prairie.

...Upper Mississippi Valley to the mid Missouri Valley...
An area of showers and embedded thunderstorms is expected to be
ongoing early Monday morning across the South Dakota/Nebraska
vicinity, ahead of the advancing mid-level short-wave disturbance.

Convection should continue through the day, with some
intensification expected during the afternoon as the airmass
downstream modestly destabilizes.  This intensification will be
aided as a zone of strengthening/veering flow with height --
associated with the upper trough -- shifts across the area.  Locally
damaging winds with a couple of the strongest storms could result,
with risk lingering into the evening before diurnally diminishing.

...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
Tornado:   2%     - Marginal
Wind:      5%     - Marginal
Hail:      5%     - Marginal

..Goss.. 07/27/2019

$$


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