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ACUS02 KWNS 270541
SWODY2
SPC AC 270540

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1240 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2019

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MIDDLE MISSOURI AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Few strong to severe storms could produce locally damaging wind
gusts across parts of the Upper Midwest Sunday afternoon and
evening.

...Portions of the Mid-MO and Upper MS Valleys...
Overall guidance has not changed considerably from previous 2-3
model runs. South/southwesterly low level winds will maintain a
seasonally moist airmass across the region. Dewpoints in the mid 60s
to low 70s F beneath modest midlevel lapse rates will result in weak
to moderate destabilization by early afternoon. A lead shortwave
impulse will spread across the region during the afternoon, while
the main lobe of the northern Plains upper shortwave trough
overspreads the region after 00z.

Convection will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period in
association with a MCV over eastern SD. This feature will shift
east/northeast along a surface trough, which extends southward into
the Upper Midwest from the main surface low over northern Manitoba.
Some strengthening of this feature is possible, and may have an
influence on overall severe threat. Either way, increasing ascent
and modest effective shear around 30 kt should support some stronger
storms/bowing clusters capable of locally strong wind gusts. The
surface cold front will quickly shift southeast, extending from
northwest WI southwestward through western IA and into central KS by
mid evening. Some organization of a line along the front is possible
during the nighttime hours as a southwesterly low level jet
increases, but convection may struggle to remain surface based with
a lack of stronger instability/shear.

...Eastern OH into PA/NY and portions of New England...

Scattered storms are expected to develop by early afternoon along a
weak surface boundary from northeast OH into western PA/NY. 60s
surface dewpoints will aid in weak destabilization as a weak upper
trough garners just enough effective shear for semi-organized
clusters and line segments. Overall severe threat is expected to
remain low given modest environmental parameters.

Further northeast into parts of ME, somewhat stronger effective
shear could glance the area and storm structures could organize a
bit more than further southwest. This could result in a relative max
in strong storm potential with some gusty winds or perhaps small
hail possible. However, poor lapse rates and limited instability
combined with weak forcing should temper overall threat.

...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
Tornado:   2%     - Marginal
Wind:      5%     - Marginal
Hail:      5%     - Marginal

..Leitman.. 07/27/2019

$$


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