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ACUS01 KWNS 270422
SWODY1
SPC AC 270421

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1121 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2019

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from Lower Michigan into
southern Wisconsin, and from eastern Wyoming and western Nebraska
into South Dakota. Marginal hail and wind are most likely.

...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough over the Upper Great Lakes Saturday morning will
weaken as it ejects northeastward toward eastern Ontario, with a
surface low over James Bay. During this time, winds aloft will
weaken, with 500-mb speeds south of this wave decreasing from 40 to
25 kt by 00Z. A cold front will stall from northern Lower Michigan
into southern Wisconsin and northern Iowa, with mid to upper 60s F
dewpoints remaining just ahead. This front will serve as a focus for
scattered storms by late afternoon.

To the west, shortwave ridging will give way to height falls from
late in the day into the night as a shortwave trough moves east
across MT. Aiding lift will be a smaller lead wave that will move
from the WY/CO border across NE and SD. An east-west oriented front
along the NE/SD border will lift north across western SD and eastern
WY during the day, aiding moisture return with southeast surface
winds and dewpoints near 60 F. This will result in widespread
thunderstorms over the northern High Plains during the afternoon,
continuing into the Dakotas overnight.

...Eastern Wyoming, western Nebraska, South Dakota...
Strong heating will occur over CO and WY, near a weak lee trough and
in the vicinity of the returning front over WY/SD. Scattered storms
are likely to develop relatively early between 18-21Z both over the
high terrain and near the front. Deep-layer shear will be marginal
in terms of severe potential, with about 25kt winds at 500 mb.
However, substantial low-level moisture with low 60s F dewpoints
near the front will result in MUCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg and will
support strong storms capable of marginally severe hail and wind.
Storms are likely to congeal into a somewhat disorganized complex of
storms and outflows as they continue across SD, with marginal wind
or hail possible overnight.

...Lower Michigan into southern Wisconsin and northeast Iowa...
Heating of a moist air mass ahead of the stalling front will lead to
moderate instability, especially over IA and WI with MLCAPE of
2500-3000 J/kg. Shear will weaken throughout the day but winds in
the 850-700 mb layer will still average 25-30 kt out of the west.
This, along with steep boundary-layer lapse rates, may support
sporadic hail and locally gusty winds with storms that form during
the late afternoon near the front, and persist through evening.

..Jewell/Bentley.. 07/27/2019

$$


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