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AWUS01 KWNH 270129
FFGMPD
NEZ000-270500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0679
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
928 PM EDT Fri Jul 26 2019

Areas affected...Portions of Nebraska

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 270127Z - 270500Z

Summary...Slowly waning coverage of showers and thunderstorms will
persist for several more hours over portions of Nebraska with
rainfall rates of 2 inches per hour possible. Rainfall rates this
high could lead to some flash flooding concerns before the cells
weaken by late evening.

Discussion...Widely scattered thunderstorms formed over portions
of north central and northeast Nebraska in a region where surface
based CAPE values were in the 3000 to 4000 J per kg during the
evening hours.  Overall flow in the region is weak...which has led
to some training of cells over portions of Cherry county and slow
moving cells farther east in portions of Holt county.  Satellite
imagery was showing cooling cloud tops in the area, suggesting
that a few of the storms will be continue to be able to support
and sustain rainfall rates despite Precipitable Water values
around 1.3 inches.  The storms which do form in this area will be
sustained initially by southerly flow at 850 mb around 20 kts or
so until outflow boundaries disrupt the inflow and there is a
general stabilization of the atmosphere will the loss of solar
heating.  Once storms do start to move, they should begin to
follow the low level thermal fields...and the 12C isotherm at 700
mb has been a decent first guess for convection so far.

The numerical guidance not been handling this scenario
particularly well...even the high resolution CAM guidance.  Radar
imagery has shown one hour rainfall amounts on the order of 1.5 to
2.0 inches.

Seven day and 14 day rainfall amounts have not been particularly
high, and Flash Flood Guidance was already high being on the edge
of the Sandhills.  At this point, any flash flooding concern
should be fairly localized and mainly confined to areas where
there is repeat convection.

Bann

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...OAX...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   42709774 41809728 41129841 41029935 42040067
            42609899


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