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ACUS01 KWNS 270031
SWODY1
SPC AC 270030

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0730 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2019

Valid 270100Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST-CENTRAL
MINNESOTA ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND INTO WESTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN...

...SUMMARY...
A few severe thunderstorms remain possible from east-central
Minnesota across northwest Wisconsin and into western Upper
Michigan. Hail and localized wind damage are most likely.

..East-central MN to Lake Superior...
Relatively steep low-level lapse rates are currently aiding storms
approaching the MSP area, despite only weak instability for 100 mb
mixed-layer parcels. The 00Z sounding from MPX shows only about 50
mb deep of 15 g/kg mixing ratio, and this suggests that storms in
this area may abruptly weaken over the next few hours as
boundary-layer temperatures cool. Until then, large hail will
continue to be the primary threat.

Farther north toward the Arrowhead and western Lake Superior, storms
have become linear. GPS water vapor sensors indicate PWAT values
over 1.30" across northern WI and into Upper MI, and this may
support a continuation of strong to locally severe storms this
evening.

For more information see mesoscale discussion 1593.

...Nebraska...
Cells which had previously been severe have recently weakened as
outflow has scoured much of the air mass. In addition, loss of
heating will negatively affect these storms as the region lacks any
large-scale lift to counteract these negative factors. The 00Z LBF
sounding shows steep lapse rates aloft, but atop a cooling boundary
layer. As such, the marginal hail and wind threat is not expected to
persist more than an hour or two beyond 01Z.

..Jewell.. 07/27/2019

$$


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