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AWUS01 KWNH 270003
FFGMPD
UTZ000-270430-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0678
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
802 PM EDT Fri Jul 26 2019

Areas affected...Utah

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 270001Z - 270430Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms capable of producing rainfall
rates of 0.50 inch per hour or greater should be lingering through
the evening before gradually weakening.  Given the rainfall rates,
areas of flash flooding are possible with the greatest concern for
flooding being located over burn scars.

Discussion...A combination of deep moisture and favorable
mid/upper-level dynamics will continue to support scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms across the outlined area into
this evening.  A weakening surface front in the vicinity along
with an approaching mid/upper-level shortwave will support at
least modest deep-layer wind shear and enhance divergence and
evacuation aloft. Precipitable Water values in the 1.0-1.3 inch
range across the region were above the 90th percentile for the
region based on SLC sounding climatology. Moderate to strong
instability (MUCAPEs of 1000-2000 J/kg) should aid the cells in
producing heavy rainfall rates.

Based on the latest hi-res guidance, rainfall rates surpassing
0.50 in/hr will remain possible into mid- or possibly late-evening
before stabilization sets in following the loss of solar heating.
There is the potential for some localized flash flooding given
these rates...particularly in burn scar areas.

Bann

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GJT...SLC...

ATTN...RFC...CBRFC...

LAT...LON   40981027 40310960 39360921 38890925 37730990
            37631154 37521174 37741296 38591341 40061236
            40461174 40881092


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