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AWUS01 KWNH 262141
FFGMPD
COZ000-NMZ000-270200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0677
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
540 PM EDT Fri Jul 26 2019

Areas affected...South Central Colorado...Northeast New Mexico

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 262139Z - 270200Z

Summary...Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are
expected to continue through the next several hours across the
outlined area. Rainfall rates exceeding 1 inch/hour are possible,
which could lead to localized instances of flash flooding.

Discussion...A weak mid/upper-level shortwave is indicated in the
latest model guidance drifting southward across east central
Colorado this afternoon. Model data and surface observations
indicated a weak area of low pressure at the lower levels, which
was serving to produce a region of slightly enhanced low-level
convergence. Moderate instability (MUCAPEs of 1000-2000 J/kg)
along with PWs near or slightly over 1 inch were producing
occasional rainfall rates near of exceeding 1 in/hr (per radar
estimates). Effective wind shear was weak (< 20kt), which should
limit convective maintenance and keep the production of heavy
rainfall rates rather localized.

Latest HREF probabilities support the continued potential for
hourly rainfall rates exceeding 1 inch through about 02Z before
convection quickly begins to wane due to the loss of daytime
heating. In the meantime, localized heavy rainfall rates could
lead rainfall totals in the 1-2 inch range, with isolated
instances of flash flooding possible.

Ryan

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...BOU...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...CBRFC...MBRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   39090449 39060402 38770363 38230340 37610332
            37170334 36180372 35500455 35010529 34830618
            35150657 36060623 36810638 37360660 37650689
            38230687 38340652 38360615 38610570 38840512



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