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ACUS01 KWNS 262002
SWODY1
SPC AC 262000

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2019

Valid 262000Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHERN MN...FAR NORTHERN WI...AND WESTERN UPPER MI...

...SUMMARY...
A few severe thunderstorms will remain possible mainly from the
Minnesota Arrowhead into far northern Wisconsin and western Upper
Michigan this afternoon and evening. Damaging winds, large hail, and
a tornado or two may occur.

...20Z Update...
18Z sounding from INL showed around 1200 J/kg and 40 kt of effective
bulk shear were present ahead of an eastward-moving cold front
across northern MN. Even though better large-scale forcing should
remain north of the international border, isolated to scattered
storms are still expected to form within the next hour or two
along/ahead of the front. Greatest storm coverage should occur
across the MN Arrowhead into far northern WI, in closer proximity to
the upper low now entering western Ontario. A few supercells posing
both a large hail and damaging wind threat should develop across
this region, and a tornado or two cannot be ruled out either with
some low-level shear present. Considerable uncertainty still exists
regarding the potential for storm development farther south into
east-central/southeastern MN later this afternoon and evening. For
more information on the near-term severe threat across this region,
see Mesoscale Discussion 1591 and recently issued Severe
Thunderstorm Watch 541.

Isolated to perhaps widely scattered storms should continue to
intensify along/near a surface boundary across parts of NE and
vicinity. Isolated large hail and strong/gusty winds will be
possible with this activity. Confidence in greater storm coverage
remains too low to include higher hail/wind probabilities. For
additional details on the near-term severe risk across this area,
see Mesoscale Discussion 1592.

No changes have been made to the Marginal Risk area across parts of
UT/NV. See Mesoscale Discussion 1590 for more information on the
strong/gusty wind threat across this region.

..Gleason.. 07/26/2019

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Fri Jul 26 2019/

...MN/WI/MI...
A strong and progressive upper low continues to track eastward
across Manitoba today, with an associated cold front moving across
northern and central MN.  Strong heating ahead of the front coupled
with dewpoints in the mid 60s will yield afternoon MLCAPE values of
1000-1500 J/kg - promoting the development of a few intense
thunderstorms.  Activity is most likely over the MN Arrowhead
region, with decreasing probabilities of initiation farther
southwest.  Forecast soundings show vertical shear profiles
supportive of supercell structures capable of large hail, damaging
winds, and perhaps a tornado or two.  Storms may persist this
evening as they track across Lake Superior and affect parts of
western Upper MI after dark.

...NE and vicinity...
A small cluster of thunderstorms is ongoing this morning along the
SD/NE border.  While the longevity of this activity is uncertain,
strong heating/destabilization is occurring to the south/southwest
of these storms with the potential for over 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE
later today.  Most CAM solutions depict further convective
development in this CAPE axis, where sufficient deep-layer shear
will be present for organization.  Considered an upgrade to SLGT in
this area, but held off due to diversity in models regarding
coverage/intensity of storms later today.  This area will be
re-evaluated at 20z.

...UT/NV...
Morning visible satellite imagery shows relatively clear skies over
parts of eastern NV and central/southern UT.  Considerable low-level
moisture is present today with dewpoints in the mid 50s, providing
CAPE values over 1000 J/kg later today.  A weak shortwave trough
over southern CA is approaching this region, and should promote
scattered afternoon thunderstorms.  Slightly enhanced westerly flow
aloft may aid in the development of a few storms capable of
strong/damaging wind gusts.

$$


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