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From | To | Subject | Date/Time | |||
COD Weather Processor | wx-storm | MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1592 |
July 26, 2019 7:31 PM * |
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This is a multi-part message in MIME format... ------------=_1564169484-118394-911 Content-Type: text/plain ACUS11 KWNS 261931 SWOMCD SPC MCD 261930 NEZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-262200- Mesoscale Discussion 1592 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2019 Areas affected...Parts of far southeast Wyoming into far northeast Colorado...Nebraska Panhandle...and northern Nebraska Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 261930Z - 262200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Scattered storm development is expected, with at least isolated large hail and damaging winds possible with the more mature, organized storms. A WW issuance is not currently anticipated. DISCUSSION...Convective initiation is expected within the next couple of hours, with a rapid increase in instability (2000+ J/kg MLCAPE) noted, and with gradual erosion of convective inhibition. Deep-layer ascent is largely absent, as a large-scale upper-level ridge is impinging on the region from the west. Nonetheless, continued surface heating west of a northwest-to-southeast differential heating boundary has led to low-level parcels approaching their convective temperatures. With further warming of the boundary layer, convective initiation is expected to take place, with multiple attempts at initiation noted around Sheridan/Garden Counties in Nebraska over the past 2 hours. The most likely time for initiation will be around 2000-2100 UTC (based on trends in satellite data, 1200 UTC HREF guidance and the last few runs of the HRRR). Storms will most likely initiate across the Pine Ridge, into Garden County in northern Nebraska, then propagate southeastward and intensify as the storms move into a moister airmass, delineated by multiple differential moisture boundaries. Deep-layer speed shear is in place within a 700-400 mb layer, contributing to 35-45 knots of effective bulk shear across Nebraska. Latest RAP PFCs indicate mainly straight hodographs, indicative of multicellular clusters and perhaps splitting supercells, the stronger of which may be capable of producing severe hail and perhaps a few damaging gusts. Given the isolated nature of the severe threat, a WW issuance is not expected. ..Squitieri/Hart.. 07/26/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...UNR...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 40470303 41420404 42630454 42980343 43020178 42890058 42639963 42119918 41599926 41089927 40659980 40590012 40450136 40470303 ------------=_1564169484-118394-911 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" Content-Disposition: inline Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. ------------=_1564169484-118394-911-- --- SBBSecho 3.07-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) |
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