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AWUS01 KWNH 261851
FFGMPD
UTZ000-270000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0676
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
250 PM EDT Fri Jul 26 2019

Areas affected...Central Utah

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 261849Z - 270000Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms are expected to increase in
coverage and intensity through the afternoon hours. Hourly
rainfall rates of 0.50 inch are expected, with localized rates
approaching 1 in/hr possible. Areas of flash flooding are possible.

Discussion...A combination of deep moisture and favorable
mid/upper-level dynamics will support scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms across the outlined area this afternoon.
A weakening surface front in the vicinity along with an
approaching mid/upper-level shortwave should provide at least
modest deep-layer wind shear and enhance divergence and evacuation
aloft. PWs in the 1.0-1.3 inch range across the region are above
the 90th percentile for the region based on SLC sounding
climatology. ESAT PWAT data along with ARI based on some of the
latest hi-res guidance both suggest the potential for rainfall 1-3
hourly rainfall amounts with a 10-20 year return interval.
Moderate to strong instability (MUCAPEs of 1000-2000 J/kg) should
help in the realization of these heavy rainfall rates.

Based on the latest hi-res guidance, rainfall rates surpassing
0.50 in/hr will become increasingly possible through the
afternoon, with rates approaching 1 in/hr not out of the question.
Localized rainfall totals as high as 1.5 inches will be possible
if multiple convective cells are able to train over the same
areas. These rainfall rates/amounts may be sufficient to produce
localized areas of flash flooding, particularly in burn scar areas.

Ryan

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SLC...

ATTN...RFC...CBRFC...

LAT...LON   40931083 40201038 38481077 37721126 37381197
            37471292 38111367 38811391 39301389 39821340
            40191265 40801183


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