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ACUS11 KWNS 261840
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261840
MNZ000-262045-

Mesoscale Discussion 1591
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0140 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2019

Areas affected...Parts of north central/northeast Minnesota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 261840Z - 262045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Intensifying thunderstorm development expected near and
north of the northeastern Minnesota international border area during
the next few hours.  This may include increasing severe weather
potential, initially associated with supercells.  The evolution of
an increasingly organized convective system is possible by late
afternoon, with additional isolated to widely scattered storms
developing to the south of the international border area.

DISCUSSION...The fairly vigorous and relatively compact mid-level
low now appears to be taking on a more easterly than southeasterly
motion, with associated forcing for ascent likely to remain largely
focused near or north of the international border (across parts of
northwestern Ontario) this afternoon.  This may already be
contributing to the initiation of vigorous convective development
north-northeast of International Falls, which seems likely to
continue to intensify during the next few hours.

As the boundary layer continues to deepen with insolation and
mixing, and become characterized by CAPE of 1000-2000+ J/kg, the
environment probably will become conducive to supercells posing a
risk for large hail, locally strong surface gusts, and at least some
potential for a tornado.  With time, the evolution of an upscale
growing, increasingly organized cluster of storms appears possible,
accompanied by increasing risk for potentially damaging wind gusts.
While the bulk of this convection may develop across northwestern
Ontario, the southern flank may impact areas near and just south of
the northeastern Minnesota international border.

Although a bit more uncertain, particularly with regard to storm
coverage, isolated to widely scattered discrete storm development
does appear possible south of the international border area, at
least as far south as portions of central Minnesota, to the
northwest of Minneapolis/St. Paul by 22-23Z.  Locally enhanced
convergence near a pre-cold frontal surface trough axis will provide
a potential focus for this activity, beneath seasonably moderate to
strong, broadly cyclonic mid-level flow to the south of the closed
low.

..Kerr/Hart.. 07/26/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...

LAT...LON   49979303 50019122 48769079 47269224 46749258 45589320
            45469458 46719487 48399416 49979303



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