This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

------------=_1564165520-118394-894
Content-Type: text/plain

ACUS11 KWNS 261824
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261824
UTZ000-NVZ000-262100-

Mesoscale Discussion 1590
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0124 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2019

Areas affected...Portions of eastern Nevada into central Utah

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 261824Z - 262100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated to potentially scattered storms will continue to
develop through the afternoon. A few of the strongest storms may
produce damaging gusts and marginally severe hail. A WW issuance is
not expected.

DISCUSSION...Despite large scale ridging aloft and subsequent
subsidence in place across the western CONUS, isolated convective
cells have recently developed across central portions of the Great
Basin, with the aid of a well-mixed boundary layer, CIN eroding and
convective temperatures being reached. With continued surface
heating and upslope flow across terrain favoring areas, storm
coverage is expected to increase through the afternoon hours.

Recent RAP forecast soundings indicate that relatively steep lapse
rates (7-7.5 C/km on average) will be in place throughout the
troposphere, contributing to tall and skinny CAPE profiles (over
1000 J/kg MLCAPE) which are expected by afternoon peak heating.
Deep-layer and low-level speed and directional shear, however, are
all expected to be relatively mediocre, suggesting that any severe
threat that materializes will be quite brief in nature. The steep
lapse rates may promote marginally severe hail with some of the
stronger cell cores, with damaging gusts associated with dry
downbursts also possible (given a somewhat dry sfc-600 mb sub-cloud
layer).

Given the brevity of the severe threat with any individual storm,
and the likely sparse nature of the severe coverage, a WW issuance
is not anticipated.

..Squitieri/Hart.. 07/26/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GJT...SLC...VEF...LKN...

LAT...LON   38111578 38971470 40091153 39381033 37921006 37391127
            37311491 38111578



------------=_1564165520-118394-894
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII"
Content-Disposition: inline
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
------------=_1564165520-118394-894--

--- SBBSecho 3.07-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)