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ACUS02 KWNS 261731
SWODY2
SPC AC 261730

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2019

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to widely scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible
Saturday across parts of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes and
northern/central Plains.

...Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes...
An upper trough will move eastward across Ontario and the Great
Lakes on Saturday. At the surface, a cold front should develop
east-southeastward across the Great Lakes and parts of the Upper
Midwest. The stronger forcing for ascent associated with mid-level
height falls will likely remain displaced to the north of this
region. But, weak low-level convergence along the front should
encourage isolated to scattered thunderstorm development by Saturday
afternoon. Ample heating of a low-level airmass characterized by
upper 60s to low 70s surface dewpoints will likely support moderate
to strong instability along/south of the boundary. Mid-level
west-northwesterly flow of 25-35 kt and steepening low-level lapse
rates though the day may be supportive of strong/gusty downdraft
winds with the more robust storms that form along the front.
Marginally severe hail may also occur with initially more discrete
convection. This isolated severe threat is expected to quickly wane
Saturday evening with the loss of daytime heating.

...Northern/Central Plains...
A subtle shortwave impulse will move eastward across parts of the
northern/central Rockies Saturday around an upper ridge centered
over the Southwest. Weak low-level upslope flow to the south of a
stalled surface boundary should aid initial storm development over
the higher terrain of central/eastern WY Saturday afternoon. This
activity will subsequently spread eastward across parts of the
northern/central High Plains through Saturday evening. Additional
storms may form along the stalled front. Mid-level westerly winds
are likely to remain rather modest, probably no more than 20-25 kt.
This should tend to limit overall storm organization and intensity.
Still, some clustering of convection is possible, and a
strengthening southerly low-level jet across NE Saturday
evening/night may maintain convection with eastward extent into
south-central SD and north-central NE. Isolated strong to severe
downdraft winds would appear to be the main threat given steep
low/mid-level lapse rates that should be present across the warm
sector. Some hail may also be possible.

...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
Tornado:   2%     - Marginal
Wind:      5%     - Marginal
Hail:      5%     - Marginal

..Gleason.. 07/26/2019

$$


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