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ACUS01 KWNS 261626
SWODY1
SPC AC 261625

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1125 AM CDT Fri Jul 26 2019

Valid 261630Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...NORTHERN WISCONSIN...AND WESTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN...

...SUMMARY...
A few severe thunderstorms are possible from the Minnesota Arrowhead
into western Upper Michigan during the late afternoon and evening.
Damaging winds, large hail, and a tornado or two are possible.

...MN/WI/MI...
A strong and progressive upper low continues to track eastward
across Manitoba today, with an associated cold front moving across
northern and central MN.  Strong heating ahead of the front coupled
with dewpoints in the mid 60s will yield afternoon MLCAPE values of
1000-1500 J/kg - promoting the development of a few intense
thunderstorms.  Activity is most likely over the MN Arrowhead
region, with decreasing probabilities of initiation farther
southwest.  Forecast soundings show vertical shear profiles
supportive of supercell structures capable of large hail, damaging
winds, and perhaps a tornado or two.  Storms may persist this
evening as they track across Lake Superior and affect parts of
western Upper MI after dark.

...NE and vicinity...
A small cluster of thunderstorms is ongoing this morning along the
SD/NE border.  While the longevity of this activity is uncertain,
strong heating/destabilization is occurring to the south/southwest
of these storms with the potential for over 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE
later today.  Most CAM solutions depict further convective
development in this CAPE axis, where sufficient deep-layer shear
will be present for organization.  Considered an upgrade to SLGT in
this area, but held off due to diversity in models regarding
coverage/intensity of storms later today.  This area will be
re-evaluated at 20z.

...UT/NV...
Morning visible satellite imagery shows relatively clear skies over
parts of eastern NV and central/southern UT.  Considerable low-level
moisture is present today with dewpoints in the mid 50s, providing
CAPE values over 1000 J/kg later today.  A weak shortwave trough
over southern CA is approaching this region, and should promote
scattered afternoon thunderstorms.  Slightly enhanced westerly flow
aloft may aid in the development of a few storms capable of
strong/damaging wind gusts.

..Hart/Squitieri.. 07/26/2019

$$


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