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ACUS01 KWNS 261246
SWODY1
SPC AC 261245

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0745 AM CDT Fri Jul 26 2019

Valid 261300Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MN ARROWHEAD TO
WESTERN UPPER MI...

...SUMMARY...
A few severe thunderstorms are likely from the Minnesota Arrowhead
into western Upper Michigan during the late afternoon and evening. A
tornado or two, large hail, and damaging winds are possible.

...Eastern MN to western Upper MI...
A swath of elevated convection is ongoing across western Lake
Superior southwest into east-central MN within a zone of low-level
warm theta-e advection. This should gradually diminish as it shifts
east in WI/upper MI. While destabilization is anticipated in its
wake as lingering stratus dissipates, it is highly unlikely to be to
the degree that the 06Z NAM suggests with its depiction of MLCAPE to
around 4500 J/kg over the Twin Cities by early evening. The RAP
appears much more reasonable with a plume of moderate buoyancy
(MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg) ahead of the cold front given 12Z
observed soundings.

As 0-3 km lapse rates approach 9 C/km south of the mid-level cold
core translating east across southern MB into northwest ON,
surface-based thunderstorm development is anticipated across
northeast MN. While low-level winds may be predominately
southwesterly, some veering of the wind profile with height in
conjunction with pronounced speed shear will yield a moderately
enlarged hodograph, especially as low-level flow strengthens this
evening. A few supercells should form with all severe hazards
possible. These cells should persist and/or briefly cluster for a
few hours across far northern WI into far western MI before
weakening towards late evening.

Isolated thunderstorm development is possible farther to the south
along the front across east-central MN into west-central WI. These
storms and attendant severe potential should be shorter-lived given
stronger forcing for ascent remaining farther north.

...Western/northern NE...
Isolated severe wind gusts and hail are most probable during the
late afternoon to just after dusk.

A cluster of elevated convection near the SD/NE border should decay
by midday, while trailing portion of the Upper Midwest front
decelerates across far southeast SD and the NE Panhandle. A pocket
of moderate buoyancy should develop near and just north of the
boundary as a deeply mixed boundary-layer forms to its south. With a
lack of large-scale ascent and light low-level winds, guidance
differs with the degree of convergence near the front and prospects
for sustained storm coverage at peak heating. Sufficient upper-level
speed shear will exist for elongation to the high-level hodograph
which would support a few splitting cells and perhaps brief
clustering.

..Grams/Mosier.. 07/26/2019

$$


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