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Message   COD Weather Processor    wx-storm   MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1589   July 26, 2019
 8:14 AM *  

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ACUS11 KWNS 260814
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260813
WIZ000-MNZ000-260945-

Mesoscale Discussion 1589
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0313 AM CDT Fri Jul 26 2019

Areas affected...Southwest/Central MN

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 260813Z - 260945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated storms capable of large hail are possible across
southwest and central MN during the next hour or two.

DISCUSSION...Elevated thunderstorms have recently developed across
central MN along the leading edge of stronger forcing for ascent
attendant to a shortwave trough (and associated speed max) moving
through the northern Plains. A narrow corridor of instability exists
from southwest MN into the MN Arrowhead, where mid-level
temperatures are relatively cooler than areas farther east. Based on
recent RAP forecast soundings, these storms are likely rooted around
850-900 mb.

Expectation is for these storms to continue eastward for the next
hour or two before outrunning the instability and dissipating.
Modest vertical shear is in place and a few more organized storms
capable of large hail are possible before the storms reach the edge
of the instability corridor. Given the spatially and temporally
limited nature of the severe threat, a watch is not anticipated.

..Mosier/Grams.. 07/26/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FSD...

LAT...LON   44949630 46119474 47359300 46539225 44259451 44069602
            44949630



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