This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

------------=_1564138780-118394-805
Content-Type: text/plain

FOUS30 KWBC 260722
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
317 AM EDT Fri Jul 26 2019

Day 1
Valid 12Z Fri Jul 26 2019 - 12Z Sat Jul 27 2019


...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES...

...Central and Southern Rockies and Great Basin...

A shortwave trough moves east from California into Intermountain
West Friday.  As a result, the deep high centered over the four
corners region will shift south and west in time.  Afternoon
convective development will occur over the CO/NM Rockies following
destabilization and upslope flow to generate lift.  With monsoonal
flow continuing, expect precipitable water values to climb to 1.0
to 1.25 inches. This combined with moderate instability will lead
to locally heavy rain.  Areas with prior showers/storms have
reduced 3-6 hr flash flood guidance, between 1-1.5 inches on 3
hours, thus the need for a slight risk area in the terrain of
southeast CO across NM.

Mid-level impulses around the ridge and help promote widespread
shower/thunderstorm development from over NV/UT.
Localized cell mergers and training could lead to localized heavy
rain. Forecast soundings from the NAM show local direction shear
later this morning into the early afternoon to support the
localized training.

Other cells are forecast to develop on the central high Plains in
the vicinity of a wavy front in western NE, where dewpoints are as
high as the mid 60s.  Cells are expected to develop in the peak of
the diurnal cycle, with slow motions possibly leading to locally
heavy amounts, with several high res models showing a couple of
inches of rain.
Higher flash flood guidance values precluded a more significant
threat.

...Upper Peninsula of MI...

The models have increased amounts this cycle over the western UP
of MI as a 700 mb shortwave rotating under the upper trough in
southern Canada induces a combination of well defined 700 mb
convergence and theta-e advection crossing from northeast MN
through the UP of MI Fri evening.  Convection generates in
northeast MN during the peak diurnal period and continues east
southeast across the UP of MI.  The high res WRF ARW/ARW2, NAM
Conus Nest, and NSSL WRF all forecast a could of inches of rain,
near flash flood guidance.  Runoff problems could stem from
localized training in the area Fri night.


Petersen



Day 2

The Day 2 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 3

The Day 3 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 1 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.t...
Day 2 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.t...
Day 3 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.t...


$$




------------=_1564138780-118394-805
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII"
Content-Disposition: inline
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
------------=_1564138780-118394-805--

--- SBBSecho 3.07-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)