This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

------------=_1564139378-118394-811
Content-Type: text/plain

FOUS30 KWBC 260730
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
330 AM EDT Fri Jul 26 2019

Day 1
Valid 12Z Fri Jul 26 2019 - 12Z Sat Jul 27 2019


...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES...

...Central and Southern Rockies and Great Basin...

Afternoon convective development will occur over the CO/NM Rockies
following destabilization and upslope flow to
generate lift.  With monsoonal flow continuing, expect
precipitable water values to climb to 1.0 to 1.25 inches. This
combined with moderate instability will lead to locally heavy
rain.  Areas with prior showers/storms have reduced 3-6 hr flash
flood guidance, between 1-1.5 inches on 3 hours, thus the need for
a slight risk area in the terrain of southeast CO across NM,
including the Sangre de Cristo and Manzano Mountains.

A shortwave trough moves east from California into Intermountain
West today.  As a result, the deep high centered over the four
corners region will shift south and west in time. This will send
further mid-level impulses around the ridge and help promote
widespread shower/thunderstorm development from over NV/UT.
Locally heavy rain is possible where cell mergers occur.  NAM
forecast soundings show low directional shear today, promoting
localized training.

Other cells are forecast to develop on the central high Plains in
the vicinity of a wavy front in western NE, where dewpoints are as
high as the mid 60s.  Cells are expected to develop in the peak of
the diurnal cycle, with slow motions possibly leading to locally
heavy amounts, with several high res models showing a couple of
inches of rain.  Higher flash flood guidance values precluded a
more significant
threat.

...Upper Peninsula of MI...

The models have increased amounts this cycle over the western UP
of MI as a 700 mb shortwave rotating under the upper trough in
southern Canada induces a combination of well defined 700 mb
convergence and theta-e advection crossing from northeast MN
through the UP of MI Fri evening.  Convection generates in
northeast MN during the peak diurnal period and continues east
southeast across the UP of MI.  The high res WRF ARW/ARW2, NAM
Conus Nest, and NSSL WRF all forecast a could of inches of rain,
near flash flood guidance.  Runoff problems could stem from
localized training in the area Fri night.


Petersen



Day 2

The Day 2 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 3

The Day 3 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 1 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.t...
Day 2 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.t...
Day 3 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.t...


$$




------------=_1564139378-118394-811
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII"
Content-Disposition: inline
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
------------=_1564139378-118394-811--

--- SBBSecho 3.07-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)