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ACUS03 KWNS 260733
SWODY3
SPC AC 260732

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0232 AM CDT Fri Jul 26 2019

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHERN MN INTO WESTERN IA AND EASTERN NE...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe storms are possible across parts of southern
Minnesota, western Iowa and eastern Nebraska Sunday afternoon and
evening.

...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough will progress eastward from the northern Plains
vicinity Sunday morning, to the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity
by Monday morning. A warm and moist airmass ahead of this system
will provide plenty of instability for thunderstorm development by
afternoon in the vicinity of a surface over central/southern MN,
southwestward into parts of IA/NE ahead of a cold front.

...Southern MN into western IA/eastern NE...

Forecast guidance has trended stronger with the shortwave trough
expected to move across the region on Sunday and some threat for
strong to isolated severe storms appears possible. 35-45 kt of
southwesterly 700-500 mb flow will overspread the area ahead of the
shortwave. At the surface, mid to upper 60s dewpoints will be in
place, and strong heating will result in a band of moderate
instability. A weak surface low is expected shift eastward from
eastern SD into southern/central MN during the afternoon, with a
cold front extending southwestward into eastern NE. Increasing
ascent and little to no cap should result in thunderstorm
development in the vicinity of the surface low with more isolated
activity southwestward along the front. Sporadic strong gusts will
be possible, especially with any forward propagating clusters/line
segments. Some marginal hail is also possible in stronger storms as
well. Furthermore, a tornado cannot be ruled out near the surface
low where backed low level winds will enhance SRH across southern
MN.

While guidance has come into better agreement indicating some severe
potential on Sunday, uncertainty still exists due to differences in
the position of the surface low. Furthermore, possible influences
from mesoscale features from prior day's convection remain unclear.
As such, only Marginal probs will be added at this time.

..Leitman.. 07/26/2019

$$


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