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ACUS02 KWNS 260524
SWODY2
SPC AC 260523

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1223 AM CDT Fri Jul 26 2019

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS AS WELL AS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
UPPER MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to widely scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible
Saturday across portions of the central and northern Plains and
parts of the Upper Midwest.

...Synopsis...

Progressive northern stream flow will bring a shortwave trough
across the Northern Rockies toward the northern Plains on Saturday.
A second shortwave trough will migrate across the Great Lakes
vicinity. Modest northwesterly midlevel flow will be associated with
both of these systems, and could drive some threat for strong to
severe storms across parts of eastern WY into western NE/SD during
the afternoon and evening, as well as across parts of northeast IA
into southern WI/northern IL during the afternoon.

...Northeast IA into Southern WI and Northern IL...

A stalled frontal boundary will sag southward across central WI
during the afternoon while an outflow boundary from overnight
convection in the Day 1/Fri period modifies and lifts northward.
Strong heating and surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to near 70 F
will result in moderate destabilization during the afternoon as a
band of 30-40 kt flow spreads across the region before weakening
after 00z as the upper trough axis shifts east of the region. While
guidance varies on timing of CI and exact location of surface
boundaries, various forecast soundings indicate an environment
conditionally capable of strong, organized storms with modest
effective bulk shear around 25-30 kt and modest lapse rates. Some
marginal hail is possible with the strongest storms.  PW values
around 1.8-2 inches and modestly steep low level lapse rates could
also result in a wet microburst and strong outflow winds. Any severe
threat should quickly diminish with loss of daytime heating and as
midlevel flow weakens after 00z.
...Eastern WY into western NE/SD...

Southeasterly, upslope flow will maintain upper 50s to lower 60s F
dewpoints across much of the area. Height falls will overspread the
region by afternoon ahead of the main upper shortwave trough, and
effective shear will increase to around 30 kt. Thunderstorms will
initiate over higher terrain initially and spread eastward across
the High Plains. Modest shear in the presence of steep midlevel
lapse rates and weak to moderate instability will result in some
threat for isolated hail and strong gusts. A cold front will shift
east into the western Dakotas overnight. An increasing low level jet
and warm advection regime will maintain convection eastward across
northern NE and SD overnight, but severe potential appears limited
with this activity.

...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
Tornado:   2%     - Marginal
Wind:      5%     - Marginal
Hail:      5%     - Marginal

..Leitman.. 07/26/2019

$$


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