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ACUS01 KWNS 260517
SWODY1
SPC AC 260516

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1216 AM CDT Fri Jul 26 2019

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARROWHEAD
OF MINNESOTA INTO WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...

...SUMMARY...
A few severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of Minnesota,
Upper Michigan, and Wisconsin, and from northern Nebraska into
southeast Wyoming. Hail and localized damaging winds are expected.

...Synopsis...
An upper low will gradually fill as it moves east across MB and ON,
with midlevel winds weakening to 35-40 kt across much of the Upper
MS Valley and Great Lakes. The base of the shortwave trough will be
near the MN/WI border at 21Z, with warming aloft to the west. A cold
front will trail south from western ON into central MN, with mid 60s
F dewpoints and heating destabilizing the region. The strongest lift
will be over the Arrowhead of MN and across Lake Superior late in
the afternoon, with isolated severe storms expected.

To the southwest, the aforementioned front will stall in an
east-west fashion from northern NE and into eastern WY, where upper
50s to low 60s F dewpoints will exist. A warming air mass and
developing southerly winds will result in lift in this area, with a
few severe storms likely.

...MN across northern WI and into Upper MI...
Areas of thunderstorms are possible early in the day moving across
the Lake Superior region, in a zone of warm advection with 30-40 kt
southwesterly 850 mb winds. This activity will quickly depart the
region, with strong heating ahead of the cold front which will
extend from northern into central MN by afternoon. Midlevel
temperatures will approach -15 C over the Arrowhead, and this is
also where the greatest DCVA will be. An arc of thunderstorms is
expected from western ON across the Arrowhead, with hail and strong
wind gusts possible. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out as
hodographs will favor supercells, but LCLs will be a bit high. That
said, this may instead favor wind damage with the strongest cells.

...NE into southeast WY...
A moderately unstable air mass, in part due to a deeply mixed
boundary-layer and near 60 F dewpoints, will develop along the front
during the afternoon across the northern half of NE, and into
eastern WY where surface winds will veer to easterly late in the
day. Straight hodographs will develop, comprised of lightly veering
low-level winds with height beneath modest mid to upper-level
northwesterlies. Given strong heating and lack of a cap, surface
convergence will be sufficient for initiation, with splitting cells
possible. Hail will be the primary risk, but a localized severe gust
cannot be ruled out as downdrafts will have substantial negative
buoyancy.

..Jewell/Elliott.. 07/26/2019

$$


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