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AWUS01 KWNH 252052
FFGMPD
COZ000-NMZ000-260300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0674
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
451 PM EDT Thu Jul 25 2019

Areas affected...High Plains into the Sangre de Cristos of
Colorado and New Mexico

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 252100Z - 260300Z

Summary...Thunderstorms with rain rates approaching 2"/hr will
gradually increase in coverage through the evening. Widespread
convection is likely, which may produce 1-3" across the area.
Flash flooding is possible, especially along and east of the
terrain where FFG is lower.

Discussion...A subtle mid-level impulse moving atop a large upper
ridge is assisting in convective development this afternoon.
Recent IR imagery from GOES-16 shows expanding coverage of cooling
cloud tops indicative of strengthening thunderstorms. In general,
thunderstorms are moving west to east across Colorado, and north
to south in New Mexico around the ridge centered over the Four
Corners, but storm motions are expected to diminish to near 0
within the discussion area.

In addition to the shortwave to aid in lift, steepening lapse
rates, modest upper diffluence within the RRQ of a 50kt jet
streak, low-level convergence along a surface trough, and
orographic enhancement in response to easterly flow into the
terrain are working in tandem to provide ascent. This is occurring
in a thermodynamic environment favorable for heavy rainfall, noted
by PWATs of 0.8-1.1 inches, 1.5-2 standard deviations above the
climatological mean, and increasing surface based instability
analyzed by the RAP to be 1500-2000 J/kg. Recent radar estimate
rainfall rates have reached 1.5"/hr from KABQ WSR-88D, and the
HREF neighborhood probabilities show moderate chances for these
rates to continue into the evening.

FFG across this area varies widely, but along and east of the
Sangre de Cristos, it is in some places as low as 1"/1hr thanks to
7-day rainfall that is as much as 300% of normal. While shear is
weak suggesting storms will be primarily of the pulse variety,
very slow storm motions are likely as noted by 0-6km mean wind and
layer Corfidi vectors of around 5 kts. The slowest storm motions,
which may be stationary at times, are expected just east of the
terrain where the low-level 850-700mb inflow from the east will
offset some of the westerly mid-level flow to stall thunderstorms.
With rain rates expected to be 1-2"/hr, slow storm motions on top
of sensitive terrain with low-FFG could lead to flash flooding.

Weiss

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...BOU...GLD...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   39170476 39170458 39110425 38950376 38750332
            38470292 38090280 37470309 37070355 36300389
            35830409 35130439 34750464 34380475 34150512
            34110547 34310594 34490615 34830632 34940640
            35580642 35870638 36130631 36690597 36970573
            37490551 37920558 38160582 38530598 38910573
            39140544 39160518


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