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ACUS01 KWNS 260044
SWODY1
SPC AC 260042

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0742 PM CDT Thu Jul 25 2019

Valid 260100Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA...AND THE EXTREME EASTERN DAKOTAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of hail remain possible
through evening.

...Eastern ND...northeast SD...western and central MN...
Latest satellite imagery shows attempts at storms along the cold
front, from the ND/MN border southwestward to south of Aberdeen SD.
The 00Z Aberdeen sounding shows strong instability with MLCAPE near
3000 J/kg, and little CIN. However, weak winds below 700 mb indicate
poor mass convergence, thus the struggling convection currently.
Farther north along the ND/MN border, surface convergence is
stronger, and this area will experience greater cooling aloft with
the shortwave trough. However, cooler boundary-layer temperatures
exist eastward into central MN, where CIN is much greater compared
to strongly heated areas of northeast SD. The result should be a
relatively narrow corridor of strong to severe storm potential, from
northern MN into far eastern SD. Hail still appears to be the
primary threat. Deep-layer shear will be nearly perpendicular to the
front which will favor cellular storm mode, and as temperatures
aloft cool further. A few strong storms may persist overnight into
central MN, where elevated instability will develop with
increasingly southwesterly 850 mb winds of 35 kt.

..Jewell.. 07/26/2019

$$


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