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ACUS11 KWNS 251756
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251755
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-252000-

Mesoscale Discussion 1588
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 PM CDT Thu Jul 25 2019

Areas affected...Southeastern North Dakota...northeast South
Dakota...Northwestern Minnesota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 251755Z - 252000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A few storms along a cold front will be capable of
isolated large hail and strong/severe wind gusts this afternoon.
Only modest deep-layer shear and narrow corridor of destabilization
lends uncertainty to the coverage/intensity of storms. A WW may be
needed if convective trends warrant in the next few hours.

DISCUSSION...Convection has fire along an eastward progressing cold
front in eastern North Dakota. Model guidance has struggled to
capture this early activity. Given the boundary layer wave clouds
ahead of this activity, perhaps an hour or two of continued surface
heating will be necessary to erode remaining convective inhibition.
Initial activity will be capable of marginally severe hail given
7-7.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates. Further development along the
boundary is possible later this afternoon and would likely be more
intense. Overall shear profiles are modest with near 30 kts of 0-6
km shear in far northwest Minnesota, nearer to the upper-level low,
decreasing to 20 kts farther to the south. Current observational
trends would indicate that the most likely zone for storm
intensification is the Crookston, MN to Bemidji, MN vicinity where
it has remained relatively cloud free unlike points to the
northwest. Storms that can become surface based will be capable of
isolated large hail and strong/severe wind gusts. The narrow
corridor of 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE leave some doubt as to how long
storms can remain organized/intense. How far south storms will
develop given the weaker forcing there is also unclear. Convective
trends will continue to be monitored for a possible WW in the next
few hours.

..Wendt/Hart.. 07/25/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS...

LAT...LON   48249712 48969633 48939504 48569426 47279422 46349487
            45539590 45139705 45069795 45679852 46339862 48249712



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