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ACUS02 KWNS 251731
SWODY2
SPC AC 251730

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Thu Jul 25 2019

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...WESTERN GREAT LAKES...AND CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible Friday across parts
of the upper Midwest, western Great Lakes, and central Plains.

...Upper Midwest and Western Great Lakes...
An upper low will move from Manitoba into western Ontario by Friday
evening, with an associated mid-level jet overspreading parts of the
upper Midwest through the day. At the surface, a cold front will
develop eastward across the upper Midwest and Great Lakes through
the period, while the trailing portion of this front sags slowly
southward over the central Plains before stalling by Friday evening.
Thunderstorms may be ongoing Friday morning across parts of MN/WI
and the Upper Peninsula of MI in associated with a southwesterly
low-level jet. This convection may delay and/or hinder
destabilization across these areas through early Friday afternoon.

Even so, there should be a narrow corridor of heating and
destabilization that occurs ahead of the eastward-moving cold front,
with MLCAPE potentially reaching into the 1000-2000 J/kg range
across the MN Arrowhead into east-central MN and perhaps northern WI
by peak diurnal heating. This area appears to have the best
potential for convective development along the front Friday
afternoon/evening, as it will be in closer proximity to the
large-scale forcing attendant to the upper low in Canada. Effective
bulk shear of 30-40 kt will be supportive of organized updrafts
along the front, with a mix of multicells and supercells possible.
Both large hail and strong to damaging winds appear to be the main
threat. Will maintain Marginal Risk this update, with uncertainty
regarding the degree of instability and overall storm coverage
limiting confidence in the need for higher severe probabilities for
now.

...Central Plains...
Isolated to scattered storms are forecast to develop along the front
by Friday afternoon across parts of far southeastern WY into
western/central NE. Although mid-level northwesterly flow should be
weaker across this region compared to locations farther north,
effective bulk shear of 25-35 kt should be sufficient to promote
occasional updraft organization and multicell clusters. With strong
heating expected along/south of the front, MLCAPE will likely
increase into the 1500-2500+ J/kg range. The forecast combination of
instability and shear may allow for isolated instances of severe
wind gusts and perhaps large hail.

...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
Tornado:   2%     - Marginal
Wind:      5%     - Marginal
Hail:      5%     - Marginal

..Gleason.. 07/25/2019

$$


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