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ACUS11 KWNS 251642
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251642
FLZ000-251815-

Mesoscale Discussion 1587
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1142 AM CDT Thu Jul 25 2019

Areas affected...Parts of east central and southeast Florida
peninsula

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 251642Z - 251815Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of east central and
southeast Florida coastal areas this afternoon, particularly around
Vero Beach by 3-4 PM EDT, accompanied by a period of strong wind
gusts which could briefly approach or exceed severe limits.

DISCUSSION...A gradual intensification of thunderstorm activity is
ongoing along  a combination of eastward advancing conglomerate
convective outflow and the sea breeze, both progressing inland of
the west central and southwestern Florida Gulf coast.  This is
occurring in the presence of generally light (around 10 kt)
west-southwesterly deep layer ambient mean flow, but there has been
some recent acceleration of the cold pool to around 20-25 kt,
perhaps aided by a belt of modest environment winds in the 850-500
mb layer.

Although the Atlantic coast sea-breeze has yet to advance inland,
insolation ahead of the ongoing thunderstorm activity, into the
Atlantic coast, is contributing to steepening low-level lapse rates
across much of east central and southeast Florida.  With surface
temperatures warming to around 90F, contributing to mixed-layer CAPE
on the order of 2000+ J/kg, lift along the strengthening cold pool
may be sufficient to support further intensification during the next
few hours.

It currently appears that the strongest convection may impact
coastal areas near Vero Beach by the 18-19Z time frame, accompanied
by frequent lightning, and perhaps a period of heavy rainfall with
strong surface gusts at least approaching severe limits.

..Kerr/Hart.. 07/25/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...

LAT...LON   27868066 27978049 26947999 26328002 25938037 26218055
            26438072 26818076 27158068 27548073 27868066



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