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ACUS01 KWNS 251609
SWODY1
SPC AC 251608

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1108 AM CDT Thu Jul 25 2019

Valid 251630Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER PARTS OF MINNESOTA AND THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from
northern Minnesota to northeast South Dakota between about 4 to 11
PM CDT. Large hail and damaging winds should be the primary hazards.

...Dakotas/MN...
A progressive upper low is moving eastward across Saskatchewan, with
its associated surface cold front extending from northeast ND into
central SD.  Relatively strong heating is occurring ahead of the
front, where surface dewpoints are generally in the mid-upper 60s.
This will likely result in at least a narrow corridor of afternoon
MLCAPE values exceeding 2500 J/kg.  A few intense cells are likely
to develop along the front by late afternoon over northwest MN, with
some potential for development farther south along the front into
southeast ND/northeast SD.  Vertical shear is sufficient for
organized multicell or perhaps supercell structures capable of hail
and gusty/damaging winds.  Isolated storms should persist much of
the evening across the SLGT risk area.

...South FL...
Strong heating and very moist/unstable conditions are present across
south FL today with SBCAPE values over 3000 J/kg.  Observed and
forecast soundings show 15-25 kt westerly flow in the 1-4 km layer,
which may be sufficient to enhance outflow wind potential in the
strongest cells later today.

..Hart/Wendt.. 07/25/2019

$$


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