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ACUS01 KWNS 251244
SWODY1
SPC AC 251242

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0742 AM CDT Thu Jul 25 2019

Valid 251300Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN DAKOTAS TO
NORTHERN MN...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from
northern Minnesota to northeast South Dakota between about 3 to 11
PM CDT. Large hail and damaging winds should be the primary hazards.

...Eastern Dakotas into northern MN...
A shortwave impulse over eastern SD will move southeast into the
Mid-MS Valley, while a more vigorous shortwave trough tracks
east-southeast across the Prairie Provinces. Modest mid-level height
falls accompanying the latter wave should be favorably timed just
after peak diurnal heating. Adequate convergence along a slow-moving
cold front, trailing from northwest MN into eastern SD by early
evening, should aid in isolated to scattered thunderstorm
development.

While mid/upper-level winds should be strengthening from weak to
moderate values, especially with northern extent, stronger
westerlies will lag well behind the front. Effective shear values
should only average from 25-35 kt with small hodographs, suggesting
storms may struggle to maintain supercell structure despite a
largely discrete convective mode with deep layer shear perpendicular
to the front. In addition, the mixed-layer buoyancy plume will
likely be spatially confined to less than 200 miles wide owing to a
lack of downstream destabilization to the north of the lead
shortwave impulse. As such, overall setup will probably yield a mix
of short-duration supercells and multicell clusters capable of
severe hail and damaging winds into the evening. Convection should
largely weaken and become elevated by late evening, but a threat for
marginally severe hail might persist for a few more hours into parts
of east-central and northeast MN.

...Central/south FL...
A minor mid-level impulse is located over the northeast Gulf, west
of Tampa, and has aided in scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms into central FL. To the south, robust diabatic heating
should yield moderate buoyancy with MLCAPE approaching 2000 J/kg.
Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon along the
eastern sea breeze and elsewhere along residual outflows. While
effective shear will be modest (around 15-20 kt), the sheer number
of storms will yield a sufficient threat for wet microbursts and
warrants a Marginal Risk delineation.

..Grams/Mosier.. 07/25/2019

$$


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