This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

------------=_1564039135-118394-536
Content-Type: text/plain

FOUS30 KWBC 250718
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
317 AM EDT Thu Jul 25 2019

Day 1
Valid 12Z Thu Jul 25 2019 - 12Z Fri Jul 26 2019


...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
NEVADA AND SOUTHEAST CO TO NORTHEAST NM...

...Southwest...
Mid/low-level monsoonal flow will persist across the southwest
CONUS around a high centered on the Four Corners through the end
of the work week.  Weak impulses will provide enhanced lift beyond
the diurnal destabilization.
For example, THE 00Z nam shows 300 mb divergence maxima crossing
from near the CA/NV border across central NV. The NAM Conus Nest
shows locally heavy downpours this afternoon and evening.  Light
mean flow will persist which will continue to lead to slow storm
motions and increased risk for excessive rain.  Given the moisture
anomaly of 2 to 3 standard deviations over central Nevada and a
flash flood watch issued, an upgrade to a Slight Risk was made.

Another area where an upgrade to a slight risk was made was over
the Sangre DeCristo Mountains of northeast NM and southeast CO.
Recent diurnal showers and storms have occurred in the mountains
and both the NAM/GFS focus 700 mb vertical motions underneath 300
mb divergence maxima in this region centered on 00z Fri. low-mid
level lapse rates average near 7-8 deg C/KM, so lift in terrain
should result in formation of showers/storms this
afternoon/evening.
Isolated pockets of heavier rain are possible, with flooding
concerns as a result, particularly in burn scar areas.


...FL peninsula to far southeast GA...
A stationary boundary remains draped across northern Florida which
will be the focus for periodic shower/thunderstorm activity
through Thursday night. An area of 2+ inch precipitable water will
exist across this region in addition to pockets of instability.
With the upper level jet streak just to the north, the right
entrance region will assist with large scale forcing along with
mid-level impulses moving atop the surface boundary.  Therefore,
anticipate convection to move across the northern and central FL
peninsula.  Once activity initiates across west central FL in the
morning, low to mid level westerly flow promotes movement to the
eastern peninsula, so areas from Orlando to Melbourne and West
Palm Beach should be active with showers/storms this afternoon.
Additional showers/embedded storms could develop tonight near the
front over northern FL while the east central to southeast coast
should go into a diurnal minima of activity.  A slight risk was
not issued following high flash flood guidance of 4-5 inches of
rain in six hours.

Petersen



Day 2

The Day 2 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 3

The Day 3 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 1 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.t...
Day 2 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.t...
Day 3 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.t...


$$




------------=_1564039135-118394-536
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII"
Content-Disposition: inline
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
------------=_1564039135-118394-536--

--- SBBSecho 3.07-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)
SEEN-BY: 104/57 106/201 116/18 120/302 331 124/5013 5014 5015 5016 5017 130/803
SEEN-BY: 15/0 153/7715 19/33 35 36 38 75 218/700 222/2 229/426 230/150 152
SEEN-BY: 2320/105 107 240/1120 250/1 261/100 38 266/512 267/155 275/100
SEEN-BY: 282/1031 1056 291/1 111 320/119 219 34/999 340/400 342/13 3634/12
SEEN-BY: 387/21 396/45 5020/1042 712/848 801/189 90/1