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ACUS02 KWNS 250707
SWODY2
SPC AC 250706

Day 2 Convective Outlook AMEND 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0206 AM CDT Thu Jul 25 2019

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEBRASKA AND FAR SOUTHEAST
WYOMING...

AMENDED FOR EXPANSION OF GENERAL THUNDER IN THE WEST.

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms will be possible Friday across portions of the
upper Midwest and portions of western Nebraska and far southeast
Wyoming.

...Synopsis...
An upper low over Manitoba will move east into western Ontario
Province on Friday as an associated cold front is likely to extend
from near the MN Arrowhead southwest to the NE Panhandle by 00Z.
Weak ascent and stronger mid-level flow with the upper low will
shift east across the upper Midwest and western Great Lakes Friday
and Friday night.  Weak mid-level flow will highlight much of the
rest of the CONUS with upper-level high pressure centered over the
desert Southwest.

...Upper Midwest/western Great Lakes...
Morning cloud cover/precipitation should give way to sufficient
heating to result in moderate/strong surface-based instability by
afternoon in the presence of mid-upper 60s surface dew points.
Isolated to widely scattered new thunderstorm development is
expected along the cold front by late afternoon/evening as height
falls overspread the region.  Moderate mid-level flow will result in
sufficient deep shear for organized multicells and perhaps a couple
supercells.  Isolated severe wind and hail will be possible with the
strongest storms.  With time, the front should shift east of the
better instability with a weakening trend ensuing Friday night.

...Western Nebraska and southeast Wyoming...
Strong diurnal heating along the front should over come CINH by
afternoon with a few storms developing within modest northwest flow
aloft.  Shear will be adequate for updraft organization, and
surface-based instability of 1000-2000 J/kg combined with a deep
mixed layer may promote a risk for isolated damaging wind gusts and
perhaps hail.

...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
Tornado:   2%     - Marginal
Wind:      5%     - Marginal
Hail:      5%     - Marginal

..Bunting.. 07/25/2019

$$


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