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ACUS01 KWNS 250445
SWODY1
SPC AC 250443

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1143 PM CDT Wed Jul 24 2019

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS DURING THE DAY AND ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA THROUGH THE NIGHT...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered storms, some severe with hail, are possible from the
eastern Dakotas during the day into northern and western Minnesota
by evening.

...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough will move east/southeast across SK and MB, with
the base of a cyclonically curved 50 kt midlevel speed max from ND
into MN. Height falls will occur over this region throughout the
period, with 500 mb temperatures becoming colder than -10 C.
At the surface, a trough and wind shift will move from the central
Dakotas into western MN, providing a lifting mechanism for daytime
storms. Mid 60s F dewpoints will develop ahead of the wind shift,
resulting in an unstable air mass supporting a few severe storms.

Elsewhere, a weak midlevel disturbance over the eastern Gulf of
Mexico will interact with a moist air mass over Florida to produce
scattered daytime storms, some with gusty winds. However, severe
weather is not expected due to weak winds and lapse rates aloft.

...Eastern Dakotas into northern Minnesota...
A few elevated storms may be ongoing across the Dakotas early in the
day, and marginal hail is possible due to steep lapse rates aloft. A
more substantial hail threat is expected by early/mid afternoon
along the wind shift as convective inhibition mixes out. Forecast
soundings indicate MUCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg developing, which
appears reasonable given moisture currently analyzed over the
western Dakotas. While mid to upper-level winds will average 30 to
50 kt out of the west, rather weak winds will be noted around 700
mb. Straight-line hodographs with deep layer shear perpendicular to
the boundary suggest cellular storm mode, with cool temperatures
aloft further supporting hail. Severe storms are most likely during
the afternoon just downstream of the low-level lapse-rate plume,
which will point into northeast SD and eastern ND due to gusty
southwest winds. Otherwise, storms capable of hail will be possible
during the evening and overnight across much of northern MN, where
cooling aloft will persist while soundings remain uncapped for
elevated parcels.

..Jewell/Karstens.. 07/25/2019

$$


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