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ACUS11 KWNS 242151
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242151
SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-250015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1586
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0451 PM CDT Wed Jul 24 2019

Areas affected...Northern High Plains

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 242151Z - 250015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible this
evening across parts of the northern High Plains. Wind damage and
hail will be the primary threats. Weather watch issuance can not be
ruled out across the region this evening.

DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows a lee trough in place
across eastern Montana extending south-southeastward into the Rapid
City area. Surface dewpoints east of the trough are generally in the
mid 60s F and the RAP is estimating MLCAPE values in the 1500 to
2500 J/kg range. Widely scattered cells have initiated near the
surface trough over the last hour to the west of Rapid City. These
thunderstorms will continue to move eastward into the Black Hills
early this evening where the instability combined with moderate
deep-layer shear will result in an isolated severe threat.
Additional isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop further
north across far eastern Montana early this evening where the
environment will also support an isolated severe threat. Due to the
instability, shear and steep lapse rates in place, damaging wind
gusts and hail will be the primary threats. Large-scale ascent will
remain somewhat limited, suggesting storm coverage remains isolated.

..Broyles/Edwards.. 07/24/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...

LAT...LON   44360478 43820375 43540286 43370196 43400120 43930086
            44780120 45890192 47430218 47940319 48110402 48100487
            47850554 47500593 46990612 46220600 45470495 44360478



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