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AWUS01 KWNH 242113
FFGMPD
COZ000-NMZ000-250230-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0671
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
512 PM EDT Wed Jul 24 2019

Areas affected...Southern CO and Northern NM

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 242110Z - 250230Z

SUMMARY...Clusters of heavy showers and thunderstorms will
continue to develop over the higher terrain of southern CO and
northern NM, including the upslope areas of the San Juan and
Sangre De Cristo mountains. Some localized flash flooding will be
possible.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-16 IR satellite imagery in
conjunction with GLM data sets shows numerous showers and
thunderstorms evolving over the higher terrain of the San Juan and
Sangre De Cristo mountains of southern CO and northern NM. Cloud
top temperatures have continued to cool over the last couple of
hours, and with additional heating adjacent to the terrain, and
orographics providing ascent, there will likely be some additional
expansion of convective activity over the next few hours.

There is expected to be some increase in mid to high level
moisture toward 00Z as a modest fetch of Southwest U.S. monsoon
moisture encroaches on the region. This will likely favor some
uptick in rainfall efficiency within the deeper convective
cores/updrafts. Rainfall rates of as much as 1 to 1.5 inches/hr
will be possible, and the latest HRRR guidance suggests convection
persisting at least locally through about 01Z to 02Z.

Some enhanced areas of runoff and localized flash flooding will be
possible through the late-afternoon and early evening hours. The
greatest areas of sensitivity will be in and around any burn
scars, and also more steeply focused terrain. The convection
should begin to weaken by mid-evening.

Orrison

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...GJT...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...CBRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   38700635 38610605 38470584 38360553 38210532
            37910503 37160485 36450493 35860504 35200540
            35100579 35270605 35800599 36190581 36730568
            37050559 37430557 37850571 38110589 38020622
            37820640 37700653 37520656 37290654 36750633
            36510642 35860637 35480645 35580681 35930695
            36230696 36680693 37110716 37210748 37250785
            37330813 37480834 37650838 37760837 37740791
            38010789 38190813 38350785 38000707 38030673
            38250651 38510650


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