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AWUS01 KWNH 242023
FFGMPD
FLZ000-250020-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0670
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
423 PM EDT Wed Jul 24 2019

Areas affected...Northern FL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 242020Z - 250020Z

SUMMARY...Conditions will remain favorable for additional heavy
rainfall over the next few hours, with conditions improving toward
evening. Some flash flooding and runoff problems will be possible.

DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery shows an expansive area of
very heavy showers and thunderstorms focused across north Florida
in association with a very slow-moving cold front dropping
southward. There is still a moderate amount of instability pooled
along and south of the boundary, with as much as 1500 j/kg of
MLCAPE. Meanwhile, the atmosphere is highly tropical in nature
with PWATs of around 2.25 inches.

Given proximity of the front, convergent low-level flow, and
interaction with a deeply moist and unstable airmass pooled along
it, there will continue to be areas of very heavy showers and
thunderstorms over the next few hours. In fact, there continues to
be an expansion overall of cooling cloud tops per GOES-16 IR
satellite imagery. Already there have been localized rainfall
totals of 4 to 6 inches, and additional rainfall potential of as
much as 3 to 5 inches are expected over the next few hours based
on the latest hires model consensus, including the HRRR output.

Some of these additional rains, especially over areas that have
already seen heavy rain over the last few hours, may result in
some flash flooding or at least some runoff concerns. Conditions
are expected to improve toward 00Z as the instability becomes
increasingly exhausted and the convection then begins to weaken.

Orrison

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...TBW...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   30348177 30138135 29868124 29518168 29328253
            29358309 29468335 29658355 29838377 30108380
            30318345 30338236


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