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ACUS01 KWNS 241959
SWODY1
SPC AC 241958

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0258 PM CDT Wed Jul 24 2019

Valid 242000Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered large hail and severe wind gusts are possible
this afternoon and evening across far eastern Montana into the
western Dakotas.

...20Z Update...
No changes have been made to the Marginal and Slight Risk areas
encompassing parts of the northern High Plains. Convective
inhibition should continue to erode this afternoon along a surface
trough over eastern MT, with convective initiation probably
occurring around 22-00Z. Isolated large hail and damaging winds
should remain the primary threats.

..Gleason.. 07/24/2019

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1118 AM CDT Wed Jul 24 2019/

...Northern High Plains...
Morning water vapor loop shows a large upper ridge over the Great
Basin.  A well-defined shortwave trough is rotating across the
Pacific Northwest into MT, with the associated surface cold front
moving across MT.  Forcing for ascent ahead of this feature will
help to initiate scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening
over eastern MT and the western Dakotas.  Forecast soundings show
moderate MLCAPE values and sufficient westerly flow aloft for
convective organization and a few supercells.  A few damaging wind
gusts and hail will be possible.  Activity should weaken a few hours
after sunset.

$$


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