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ACUS01 KWNS 250040
SWODY1
SPC AC 250039

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0739 PM CDT Wed Jul 24 2019

Valid 250100Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated marginal hail or wind remain possible through late evening
over the northern High Plains.

...Northern High Plains...
Strong heating along and west of a surface trough has led to an
erosion of CIN over eastern MT where scattered high-based storms
were ongoing, roughly from Billings to Glendive. Dewpoints have
generally mixed out into the upper 40s F to mid 50s F, resulting in
marginal instability. Farther southeast along the lee trough,
additional storms were ongoing from southwest SD the northwestern NE
Panhandle where temperatures reached the mid 90s F.

Soundings from 00Z and objective analysis indicate capping into
central SD/ND and NE where temperatures are cooler (the BIS and LBF
soundings show MLCIN near -400 and -250 J/kg, respectively). While
further boundary layer stabilization will occur with the loss of
heating, the primary cold front will also surge across MT and into
the western Dakotas tonight as a shortwave trough deepens into SK.
Lift associated with these features may support additional storms,
mainly from MT into ND, but both instability and shear will remain
marginal for severe storms. As such, have downgraded the area to a
Marginal Risk through tonight due to expected sparse coverage of
severe.

..Jewell.. 07/25/2019

$$


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