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ACUS02 KWNS 241729
SWODY2
SPC AC 241728

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 PM CDT Wed Jul 24 2019

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur Thursday across portions of
the northern Plains and upper Midwest. Large hail and damaging winds
appear to be the main threats.

...Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest...
An upper low will move eastward from Saskatchewan into Manitoba on
Thursday, while a surface cold front also advances eastward across
the northern Plains into the upper Midwest. Mid-level westerly flow
will increase across the northern Plains through the day, and ascent
associated with the upper low should encourage convective initiation
across parts of the Dakotas along the cold front by late afternoon
or early evening. Forecast soundings across this region do show some
convective inhibition, which may tend to limit overall storm
coverage through peak diurnal heating. Still, at least isolated
storms should develop, with mid to upper 60s surface dewpoints and
strong daytime heating across the warm sector supporting MLCAPE
around 1500-2500 J/kg, locally stronger. 30-40 kt of effective bulk
shear should allow thunderstorms to become organized and pose both
an isolated large hail and damaging wind risk. This threat may
continue into parts of MN Thursday evening as a southwesterly
low-level jet modestly strengthens, before gradually diminishing
farther east Thursday night as convective inhibition increases.

...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
Tornado:   2%     - Marginal
Wind:     15%     - Slight
Hail:     15%     - Slight

..Gleason.. 07/24/2019

$$


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