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ACUS01 KWNS 241232
SWODY1
SPC AC 241230

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0730 AM CDT Wed Jul 24 2019

Valid 241300Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WESTERN DAKOTAS
AND FAR EASTERN MT...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered large hail and severe wind gusts are possible
between 3 to 10 PM MDT across far eastern Montana into the western
Dakotas.

...Northern Great Plains...
Shortwave trough along the WA/BC border will move east-northeast,
reaching southern SK by tomorrow morning. Primary surface cyclone
off the Canadian Rockies will track well north of the international
border in AB/SK. Attendant trailing cold front will arc across
eastern to southwest MT by late afternoon with a lee trough ahead of
the front near the Dakotas/MT/WY border region. Low 60s surface dew
points should be common near/ahead of the lee trough. Ample
boundary-layer heating will support a corridor of moderate buoyancy
(1500-2500 /kg MLCAPE) amid steep mid-level lapse rates as sampled
by 12Z area soundings.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along
the lee trough during the late afternoon. Deeper forcing for
ascent and stronger winds aloft accompanying the shortwave trough
will largely remain north of the international border. However, a
veering wind profile with height beneath 30-35 kt 500-mb westerlies
should support a few discrete cells with mid-level updraft rotation.
Large hail and severe wind gusts will be the primary hazards. These
threats should wane within a couple hours after dusk owing to weaker
buoyancy and robust MLCIN with eastern extent in the Dakotas.

..Grams/Mosier.. 07/24/2019

$$


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