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FOUS30 KWBC 240803
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
403 AM EDT Wed Jul 24 2019

Day 1
Valid 01Z Wed Jul 24 2019 - 12Z Wed Jul 24 2019

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS WESTERN
MONTANA, SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA, THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC,
SOUTHEAST, & CENTRAL GULF COASTAL REGION...

...Southern Mid-Atlantic, Southeast, Central Gulf Coast...
Rainfall rates were beginning to decrease from the Southern
Mid-Atlantic Region to the Southeast U.S. and Gulf Coast region
with loss of solar heating as the main precipitation band
continues to move eastward.  Main change for this ERO was to
remove the Slight Risk area and tighten the remaining Marginal
Risk area. Before long, a majority of the precipitation will have
moved off shore and only isolated to widely scattered coverage of
heavy rainfall will linger.

...Southern California...Southwest into the Southern Rockies...
A closed upper high is forecast to remain in place in the vicinity
of the Four Corners through the night.  This will favor the
persistence of above average monsoonal pw values...as much as 1.2
to 1.6 inches over the Desert Southwest  which was nearly 2
standard deviations above the climatological mean for late July.
With clearing skies, scattered monsoonal convection did develop
and did produce isolated heavy totals and isolated runoff issues
possible, even into the valleys of southern AZ due to easterly 700
hPa flow.  The HREF continued to show probabilities of 1"+
rainfall amounts into the overnight hours from the Peninsular
Range of Southern California...through the Mogollon Rim of Arizona
into southern New Mexico and far Southwest Texas...with the area
from north central New Mexico into south central Colorado also
having some probabilities of 1"+ rainfall amounts.

...Northern Great Basin into the Northern Rockies...
No changes were made to the on-going Slight Risk area over western
MT or the surrounding Marginal Risk area extending from eastern
Washington and northeast Oregon into western Montana.  An upper
trough is forecast to progress inland across these areas later
tonight and into the early morning hours on Wednesday.  ML CAPE
has probably already peaked.  Model QPFs remain fairly
modest...even from High Resolution CAMS...but radar showed
scattered convection likely being aided by well-defined upper
difluence expected ahead of mid-level height falls over the
Northern Great Basin into the Northern Rockies.  Still think
isolated totals of 1-2" are possible, which could occur in one
hour given the ample moisture available.

Bann


Day 2
Valid 12Z Thu Jul 25 2019 - 12Z Fri Jul 26 2019

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS
OF FLORIDA AND FAR SOUTHERN GEORGIA AS WELL AS THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION...

...Northern FL/Southeastern GA...
A stationary boundary remains draped across northern Florida which
will be the focus for continual shower/thunderstorm activity
through Thursday night. A tight gradient of 2+ inch precipitable
water will exist across this region in addition to marginal
instability. With the upper level jet streak just to the north,
the right entrance region will assist with large scale forcing
along with mid-level impulses moving atop the surface boundary.
Therefore, anticipate convection to move from the northeast Gulf
of Mexico across the northern FL peninsula through the period.
This will result in areal average precipitation values of .25-1+,
highest amounts across northwest FL.  Maintained the Marginal Risk
across this area given the expected precipitation activity from
Day 1 which may help soils become a bit more sensitive to
additional rainfall.  But then again, this is Florida where sandy
soils rebound quickly.  So do not expect anything more than very
isolated flash flood concerns, likely in more urbanized areas.

...Four Corners...
Mid/low-level monsoonal flow will persist across the Four Corners
region Thursday afternoon into the overnight as the mid-level
high/ridging provides moisture and impulses which when combined
with instability and upslope flow will promote convective
initiation along higher terrain. Continued light mean flow will
mean slow storm motions and the potential for the activity to
spread off the terrain into the plains. A trough crossing the
northern Rockies will promote additional lift, especially across
the higher terrain in CO/NM. Therefore, heaviest precipitation and
convective activity is expected across the Southern Rockies.
Moderate rainfall/rain rates are possible across the Black
Range/White Mountains. More modest precipitation coverage will
exist across the higher terrain in southern/central UT given the
flow regime. With more vulnerable soils and terrain across this
region, maintained the Marginal Risk.

Pagano/Campbell

Day 3

The Day 3 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 1 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.t...
Day 2 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.t...
Day 3 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.t...


$$




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