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ACUS03 KWNS 240731
SWODY3
SPC AC 240730

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Wed Jul 24 2019

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE UPPER MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms will be possible Friday across portions of the
upper Midwest.

...Upper Midwest Region...
An upper-level low will continue east across Manitoba/western
Ontario Provinces Friday, with a surface cold front likely extending
from near the MN Arrowhead southwest to near the NE/SD border by
late afternoon.  Despite some veering of the low-level flow,
dewpoints will likely range in the mid-upper 60s in advance of the
front.  Mid-level lapse rates are not expected to be particularly
steep, though sufficient for moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE 1500-2000
J/kg) to develop by afternoon.  Thunderstorms should develop on an
isolated to widely scattered basis Friday afternoon/evening near the
front, with some severe risk in the presence of northwesterly shear
averaging 30-40 kts. The severe risk should begin to wane later
Friday evening with the onset of nocturnal cooling.

..Bunting.. 07/24/2019

$$


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