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ACUS02 KWNS 240556
SWODY2
SPC AC 240555

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 AM CDT Wed Jul 24 2019

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN
AND WESTERN MINNESOTA...FAR EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms will be possible Thursday across portions of
the northern Plains and upper Midwest.

...Synopsis...
An upper-level low will move east across the southern Canadian
Prairie Provinces on Thursday, with associated height falls and a
belt of stronger mid-level flow developing across the Dakotas/upper
Midwest.  A cold front will move east in tandem with the upper low,
extending from northwest MN into western NE early Thursday evening.
A quasi-stationary front will extend from northern FL west into the
central Gulf of Mexico.  High pressure aloft will extend over much
of the southern U.S..

...Dakotas into upper Midwest...
Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop Thursday in advance
of the cold front as modest large-scale forcing for ascent develops
in association with the approaching upper low.  Surface dew points
in the 60s will contribute to moderate surface-based instability,
and 30-40 kts of deep-layer shear will be supportive of updraft
organization including supercells with a risk for large hail and
strong/damaging gusts.  With the large-scale forcing expected to
develop towards the evening/overnight hours and substantial CINH
evident on forecast soundings, storm initiation may not occur until
late afternoon or perhaps early evening.  Weak warm/moist advection
associated with a 30-35 kt low-level jet may contribute to storm
maintenance into the late evening hours before nocturnally
increasing CINH results in a weakening trend overnight.

...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
Tornado:   2%     - Marginal
Wind:     15%     - Slight
Hail:     15%     - Slight

..Bunting.. 07/24/2019

$$


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