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ACUS11 KWNS 240114
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240113
AZZ000-240245-

Mesoscale Discussion 1584
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0813 PM CDT Tue Jul 23 2019

Areas affected...portions of southwest AZ

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 240113Z - 240245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated storms may produce strong outflow winds through
the evening.

DISCUSSION...Isolated to widely scattered storms have developed
across the MCD area this evening in weak instability (500-1000 J/kg
MLCAPE) and effective shear less than 25 kt. This will largely lead
to unorganized cells that are mainly downdraft dominant.
Temperatures in the upper 90s to around 105 have resulted in very
steep lapse rates and a deeply-mixed sub-cloud layer where DCAPE is
in excess of 1200 J/kg. As a result, isolated strong outflow winds
are possible.  The lack of stronger buoyancy and shear will limit
overall severe threat as compared to yesterday (Monday 7/22). As
such, a severe thunderstorm watch is not anticipated.

..Leitman/Edwards.. 07/24/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

LAT...LON   34091334 34821329 34981300 34441186 33471069 32911014
            32161112 31771169 31601197 32031336 32761341 34091334



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