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ACUS11 KWNS 232214
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232213
MTZ000-WYZ000-IDZ000-240015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1582
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0513 PM CDT Tue Jul 23 2019

Areas affected...portions of central and western MT into ID

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 232213Z - 240015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered storms could produce a few
strong wind gusts and possibly some hail. Overall threat is expected
to remain sporadic.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are increasing in coverage and intensity
late this afternoon as increasing ascent and midlevel moisture
increases ahead of a shortwave trough now tracking toward the
Pacific Northwest coast. Easterly low level flow has maintained
generally 50s surface dewpoints east of the Rockies, and monsoonal
moisture streaming northward beneath an upper ridge is aiding in
maintenance of similar dewpoints across eastern WA/OR into ID.
Strong heating with temperatures in the 80s and 90s has allowed for
steep low level lapse rates across the region with MLCAPE values
around 500-1500 J/kg. In the presence of 30 kt effective shear, this
should be sufficient for briefly intense cells capable of strong
outflow winds. As storms track northeast toward central MT into
better-quality boundary-layer moisture, steep midlevel lapse rates
could aid in isolated large hail development. The sporadic and
transient nature of the threat is not expected to require watch
issuance at this time.

..Leitman/Edwards.. 07/23/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX...PIH...MSO...OTX...

LAT...LON   49101275 48960957 48390877 47120753 46040762 45580857
            45051017 44601182 44511281 44891351 45661525 46301654
            47471693 48911691 49061616 49101275



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