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ACUS01 KWNS 231943
SWODY1
SPC AC 231942

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0242 PM CDT Tue Jul 23 2019

Valid 232000Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AREA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered wind damage from strong gusts are most likely this
afternoon into early evening across the eastern Carolinas.

...Discussion...
Little change to the ongoing outlook appears necessary at this time,
as forecast reasoning and outlook areas laid out in the prior
outlook remain valid.  The primary adjustment has been to reshape
the MRGL and SLGT risk areas in the Carolinas, to reflect
ongoing/eastward progression of convection.  Otherwise, only minimal
line adjustments have been implemented in this update.

..Goss.. 07/23/2019

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Tue Jul 23 2019/

...Carolinas/far southeast Virginia to eastern Georgia...
An upper trough will continue to amplify/dig southeastward with
related mid-level cooling and a strengthening of southwesterly winds
aloft atop a southwest/northeast-oriented front, which will continue
to advance east-southeastward today.

Near/ahead of the front, diabatic warming of a moist boundary layer
with low 70s F dewpoints will result in moderate buoyancy (1500-2500
J/kg MLCAPE) this afternoon. As already occurring, widespread
thunderstorm development is expected near the front and within
pre-frontal confluence bands. The region will be on the periphery of
moderate mid-level southwesterlies with the southern extent of 30-35
kt 700-mb winds remaining confined to North Carolina/southeast
Virginia. This portion of the risk area should have the greatest
potential for a few transient supercells, aside from organized
linear clustering and short-duration bowing segments. While
mid-level lapse rates will be weak, steepening low-level lapse rates
should promote a risk for strong downdrafts and associated wind
damage potential.

...Northern Rockies...
A minor/lead mid-level vorticity maximum near the California/Nevada
border will be kicked north-northeastward into Idaho by evening,
downstream of a shortwave trough that will reach the
Washington/British Columbia border late tonight. Both of these
features will promote episodic isolated to scattered thunderstorm
activity. Warm/deeply mixed boundary-layer profiles will be common
ahead of the lead impulse, promoting a risk for isolated severe wind
gusts. In the lee of the northern Rockies across central Montana,
greater buoyancy will exist owing to the presence of mid 50s F
surface dew points. This might also support a risk for marginally
severe hail, but proximity to the mid-level ridge axis may be a
limiting factor to greater severe coverage.

Stronger mid/upper-level shear will accompany the primary shortwave
trough. However, thunderstorm activity with this wave should occur
overnight amid weak elevated buoyancy. A residual dry sub-cloud
layer could still foster a risk of locally strong to severe gusts
from eastern Washington to northwest Montana.

...Lower Colorado River Valley...
In the wake of an MCS yesterday, a remnant MCV continues to drift
westward along the Lower Colorado River Valley at late morning. A
belt of enhanced southeasterly mid-level winds may help to loosely
organize late afternoon thunderstorms that can develop off the
higher terrain in northwest Arizona. While buoyancy will be meager,
deeply mixed thermodynamic profiles will support a risk for isolated
severe wind gusts until just after sunset.

$$


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