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ACUS11 KWNS 231906
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231906
AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-232100-

Mesoscale Discussion 1580
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0206 PM CDT Tue Jul 23 2019

Areas affected...Southeastern Nevada...Northwestern Arizona...Far
Southwestern Utah

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 231906Z - 232100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered storm development has begun in
northwestern Arizona. Strong/severe wind gusts will be the primary
threat. Limited spatial extent of the severe threat will likely
preclude the need for WW.

DISCUSSION...A subtle shortwave trough/remnant MCV is currently
evident in the southwestern Arizona vicinity on satellite moisture
channel imagery. Visible satellite shows increasing cumulus
development along the higher terrain in northwest Arizona. As the
shortwave continues to round the upper-level ridge to the
north-northwest, additional isolated to scattered thunderstorm
development is expected to occur. Storms will be marginally
organized with the influence of the MCV leading to 20-30 kts of
effective deep-layer shear. Lack of richer moisture will limit
overall buoyancy with only 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE expected this
afternoon. The main threat from this activity will be strong/severe
wind gusts from thunderstorm outflow given very large T/Td spreads
with deeply mixed boundary layers. Storm coverage may be enough to
support development of an organized cold pool, which would increase
the wind gust threat. As the severe threat is expected to be
marginal and limited in spatial extent, a WW is not likely.

..Wendt/Guyer.. 07/23/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...SLC...VEF...

LAT...LON   35211414 35541497 36211545 36971556 37421541 38081452
            38131401 38101367 37421327 36451305 35831294 35321338
            35211414



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