This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

------------=_1563897765-2024-4476
Content-Type: text/plain

ACUS11 KWNS 231602
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231601
NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-231800-

Mesoscale Discussion 1579
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1101 AM CDT Tue Jul 23 2019

Areas affected...Parts of the North Carolina piedmont and coastal
plain

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 231601Z - 231800Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Developing thunderstorm activity may strength sufficiently
to pose increasing risk for potentially damaging wind gusts,
particularly east of Raleigh, toward the Outer Banks area, through
1-3 PM EDT.

DISCUSSION...Convection appears to be gradually strengthening along
a surface frontal zone extending across southeastern Virginia into
the higher terrain of western North Carolina, with a more notable
increase in a corridor of stronger pre-frontal boundary-layer
heating near the Raleigh NC area.  In the presence of mid 70s F
surface dew points, steep low-level lapse rates may be contributing
to mixed-layer CAPE as high as 2000 J/kg, with further
destabilization possible through early afternoon.

This instability axis is generally south of the stronger mid/upper
westerlies, but 20-30 kt westerly flow in the 850-500 mb layer may
contribute to potential for localized strong downbursts associated
with heavy precipitation loading.  Furthermore, modest large-scale
forcing for ascent may support upscale convective growth with
consolidating/congealing cold pools, which may gradually
strengthening sufficiently to pose increasing potential for damaging
winds along an associated eastward/southeastward advancing gust
front through mid to late afternoon.

..Kerr/Guyer.. 07/23/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...

LAT...LON   35797904 36557622 35777570 35107752 34697906 34767972
            35247947 35797904



------------=_1563897765-2024-4476
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII"
Content-Disposition: inline
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
------------=_1563897765-2024-4476--

--- SBBSecho 3.07-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)