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ACUS03 KWNS 230731
SWODY3
SPC AC 230730

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Tue Jul 23 2019

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms will be possible Thursday across portions of
the northern Plains and upper Midwest.

...Northern Plains/upper Midwest
A pronounced upper low will move east over the southern Canadian
Prairie Provinces of Saskatchewan/Manitoba on Thursday as an
associated cold front moves through the northern Plains and upper
Midwest. In advance of the front, low-level moisture will gradually
increase, with mid/upper 60s surface dew points in place by
afternoon.

Moderate/strong instability will develop in advance of the cold
front and pre-frontal surface trough Thursday afternoon, but the
presence of a capping inversion should limit thunderstorm coverage
until stronger forcing for ascent arrives Thursday night.  Despite
less than optimal timing, an increase in thunderstorm coverage is
expected Thursday evening/overnight, aided by increasing warm
advection with a 35-40 kt low-level jet.  Strengthening winds will
contribute to around 40 kts of shear, and initial storm development
will be capable of severe hail and wind.  Some upscale growth should
occur late Thursday night with a continued threat for hail and
strong/possibly damaging gusts.

..Bunting.. 07/23/2019

$$


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