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ACUS02 KWNS 230601
SWODY2
SPC AC 230600

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Tue Jul 23 2019

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms will be possible Wednesday across the western
Dakotas, far eastern Montana and extreme northeast Wyoming.

...Synopsis...
A compact upper trough will gradually evolve into a closed low while
lifting northeast/east across the southern Canadian Rockies, with
stronger mid-level flow developing across the northern Plains during
the day.  Upper-level high pressure centered over the southwest U.S.
will move little, and an upper-level trough over the eastern U.S.
will approach the mid-Atlantic/New England coast late Wednesday. A
cold front from north FL to south TX will move slowly south, while a
cold front moves across the northern Rockies and Plains.

...Northern Plains...
Height falls associated with the upper trough will develop across
the far northern Rockies and adjacent plains late Wednesday as a
surface cold front and pre-frontal trough move across MT and the
western Dakotas.  Surface dew points should range from the upper 50s
to lower 60s, and steep mid-level lapse rates will contribute to
pockets of moderate buoyancy by afternoon, but also notable CINH.
Mid-level westerly flow of 25-35 kts and low-level southeasterly
winds will result in ample shear (30-40 kts) for organized storms.
Current thinking is for isolated storms to develop late
afternoon/early evening along the pre-frontal trough and cold front
as modest large scale forcing and diurnal heating combine to reduce
inhibition.  The environment will be favorable for a couple
supercell storms with large hail, and severe gusts will also be
possible given very large sub-cloud temperature-dew point spreads.
Storms may continue into the late evening aided by a nocturnally
intensifying low-level jet and weak warm advection.

Higher severe probabilities may ultimately be warranted if
confidence in greater storm coverage increases.

...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
Tornado:   2%     - Marginal
Wind:      5%     - Marginal
Hail:      5%     - Marginal

..Bunting.. 07/23/2019

$$


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