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ACUS01 KWNS 230547
SWODY1
SPC AC 230546

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1246 AM CDT Tue Jul 23 2019

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION OF
THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...

...SUMMARY...
Numerous thunderstorms with a few damaging wind gusts are possible
Tuesday mainly across the central and eastern Carolinas. Other
storms with isolated downburst winds are possible over central and
southern Arizona and a portion of the northern Rockies.

...Synopsis...

Eastern U.S. upper trough is in the process of amplification and
will move only slowly east today. Farther west the upper ridge will
remain anchored near the Four Corners, while a shortwave trough
moves into the Pacific northwest. By 12Z today a cold front will be
situated from the southern New England coast, southwest through the
southern Appalachians to south Texas. This boundary will advance
southeast, reaching the coastal Carolinas late Tuesday night.

...Central through eastern Carolinas...

Diabatic warming of a moist boundary layer with low 70s F dewpoints
in warm sector will result in moderate instability this afternoon
with 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Deep layer winds will undergo a modest
increase as the upper trough amplifies, but should remain largely
parallel to developing convective lines. Storms should redevelop
along pre-frontal consolidated outflow boundaries. While mid-level
lapse rates are weak, steepening low-level lapse rates should
promote some risk for isolated strong to damaging wind gusts as
storms evolve into line segments.

...Central through southern Arizona...

Easterly winds along the southern periphery of an area of high
pressure centered over the Four Corners region will once again
promote westward movement of storms off the higher terrain into the
lower desert valleys. Deeply mixed boundary layers with steep
low-level lapse rates and large temperature-dewpoint spreads will
promote some risk for downburst winds from late afternoon through
mid evening.

...Northern Rockies...

Vorticity maxima rotating around the Great Basin upper ridge and
heating over the higher terrain should promote a few storms
developing over the northern Rockies this afternoon and evening
where deeply mixed boundary layers will support a risk for isolated
downburst winds. Storms may also occur along a cold front
accompanying the shortwave trough into the Pacific Northwest from
eastern WA into northern ID within a more strongly sheared
environment. However, this activity may not occur until late in the
period when instability will be at a minimum, and the near surface
layer will be more stable. Nevertheless, a few storms could produce
locally strong wind gusts.

..Dial/Bentley.. 07/23/2019

$$


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